Why Public Opinion Matters in EU Enlargement: Insights from the Western Balkans

Public Opinion and the Future of EU Enlargement in the Western Balkans: Insights and Policy Recommendations

Understanding public opinion’s role in EU enlargement offers a revealing look into the dynamics of integration in post-conflict societies and sheds light on how countries may act after joining the EU. Recently, I completed my Bachelor’s thesis, "Between Belgrade and Brussels: Public Opinion and the Future of EU Enlargement in the Western Balkans," which explores this complex relationship. Focusing on Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and Croatia, my research underscores the powerful influence of public sentiment on post-accession behavior, highlighting both shared hopes and divergent concerns across these nations.

Key Findings: Public Opinion Across Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatia

My research indicates that while Serbia, BiH, and Croatia share a common aspiration for EU integration benefits—such as increased mobility and access to EU markets—distinct differences shape each country’s outlook:

• Serbia: Serbian public opinion reflects high expectations of economic growth and job creation tied to EU membership. However, this optimism is tempered by concerns over economic sovereignty, a sentiment bolstered by nationalist narratives wary of external influence. Statistical analysis shows significant positive views on economic benefits yet equally strong fears regarding national economic control.

• Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH): Public sentiment in BiH is more cautious, shaped by internal divisions and a unique political landscape. In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), there is moderate optimism toward EU integration, while in Republika Srpska, skepticism is more pronounced. This disparity reflects the country’s complex governance structure and a general emphasis on social protection over economic gains, highlighting the need for a nuanced EU approach.

• Croatia: As an EU member, Croatia provides valuable insights into post-accession challenges. While Croatians recognize economic advantages like market access, they also express concerns about employment disparities and the impact on local governance. Croatia’s experience underscores the balancing act between EU integration benefits and national autonomy, which may resonate with prospective member states.

Convergence and Divergence in Public Sentiment

While each country’s perspective varies, shared values also emerge, such as the desire for freedom of movement and improved stability. Yet, the degree of emphasis differs: Serbia’s priority on economic sovereignty contrasts with BiH’s focus on social protection, and Croatia’s mixed views reflect post-accession realities.

These convergences and divergences reveal the importance of understanding public opinion in tailoring EU integration strategies. Countries’ historical contexts, socio-economic priorities, and political identities shape public sentiment, and acknowledging these factors is crucial for effective EU engagement.

Policy Recommendations for EU Enlargement in the Western Balkans

Based on these findings, several policy recommendations arise for the EU to consider as it navigates future enlargement efforts in the Western Balkans:

1. Address Specific Concerns with Tailored Communication Strategies
   To foster a supportive environment for EU accession, the EU should address country-specific concerns. In Serbia, targeted communication on how EU integration can respect and support national sovereignty could ease apprehensions. For BiH, emphasizing EU support for healthcare and social protection can build trust, especially in regions where these services are highly valued.

2. Strengthen Economic Support While Respecting National Autonomy
   For Serbia, the EU’s economic initiatives like the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) can play a critical role in demonstrating practical benefits. However, respecting national autonomy is key; EU communication should reassure Serbian citizens that integration can support local economic goals without compromising sovereignty.

3. Support Social Protection in Bosnia and Herzegovina
   BiH’s priorities lean toward social stability, so EU initiatives such as the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) and IPA funding should continue to focus on enhancing social protection. Initiatives that address judicial reform, anti-corruption, and social cohesion can help BiH achieve tangible progress that builds public confidence in the EU.

4. Enhance Minority Rights and Regional Cooperation
   The EU could promote its integration agenda by championing initiatives like the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages, especially in BiH. These efforts can strengthen minority rights and support public alignment with EU values, particularly in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is more receptive to EU norms than Republika Srpska.

5. Ensure Clear Communication on Mobility and Migration Benefits
   Public concerns around migration and brain drain need to be addressed. EU policies should clarify the opportunities and benefits of increased mobility, balanced with policies that encourage talent retention. Clear, accessible communication can help ease fears around talent loss, especially in BiH and Serbia.

6. Extend Continued Support to Post-Accession States like Croatia
   Croatia’s experience shows that post-accession support remains essential. Programs like the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) are instrumental in addressing regional disparities and economic development. For future member states, sustained EU involvement can smooth the integration process and help maintain public support.

Building a Nuanced and Effective EU Enlargement Strategy

The future of EU enlargement in the Western Balkans depends on understanding the unique socio-political landscapes of Serbia, BiH, and Croatia. While these countries share aspirations for stability and economic opportunity, their distinct perspectives highlight the need for tailored, context-sensitive EU policies. By addressing specific national concerns and fostering trust through clear communication, the EU can create a more inclusive and supportive enlargement process.