Navigating the Future of Great Power Competition in an Age of AI and Autocracy
As the world contends with fast-evolving technologies, particularly AI, the competition for global leadership is entering a new era. The growing influence of AI in both military and governance contexts means that future power struggles will be increasingly waged not just on physical battlefields but also within the digital and normative realms. Both democratic and authoritarian regimes see these advancements as transformative to their power and influence, sparking fundamental shifts in global dynamics. Against this backdrop, the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency marks a critical turning point that could reshape how America approaches this great power rivalry and its relationship with allies.
The Stakes: Competing Visions of Global Leadership
The current power competition centers on how great powers envision their role in a world increasingly shaped by AI and emerging technologies. For democracies like the U.S. and Europe, the challenge lies in balancing technological advancement with transparency, ethical governance, and regulatory standards. Autocratic states, unburdened by these constraints, often prioritize rapid implementation and state control, sometimes outpacing democratic governments in adopting new technologies for military and governance purposes. This difference in approach has led to divergent power dynamics, where countries like China, Russia, and Iran are able to mobilize AI and other technologies swiftly to expand their global influence.
Trump’s Return: What it Means for Transatlantic Relations and AI-Driven Defense
The return of Trump brings uncertainty about the future of transatlantic security cooperation. His prior administration emphasized an “America First” approach, often prioritizing transactional relationships over long-term alliances. With a renewed presidency, several questions arise: Will Trump pursue a similarly isolationist path, potentially leaving Europe vulnerable to the advances of authoritarian powers? Or will his administration foster more robust AI and defense collaborations to counterbalance these threats? His foreign policy choices and future cabinet will profoundly impact how democracies respond to autocratic advances in defense and technology, especially if the U.S. steps back from collaborative defense efforts.
The Role of the Private Sector: A New Front in Global Power Dynamics
As technological innovation in AI and defense accelerates, the private sector has emerged as a powerful player, often surpassing government capabilities in producing cutting-edge solutions. Companies specializing in AI-driven defense technologies and cybersecurity have gained significant influence, reshaping traditional power structures. However, this brings new challenges. Private sector actors must navigate diverse regulatory environments, with vastly different rules on data privacy, surveillance, and military applications across democratic and authoritarian regimes. This divergence poses a strategic dilemma: How can private industry support democratic resilience while respecting regulatory and ethical standards? Addressing these tensions is crucial for building effective partnerships that uphold democratic values in defense.
Europe’s Position: Innovation, Preparedness, and Strategic Resilience
Europe’s relatively slow pace in AI innovation and defense preparedness raises concerns about its ability to keep up in this new era. There is mounting pressure on Europe to accelerate its development of critical technologies to avoid falling behind. As the global landscape shifts, Europe faces a pressing need to foster self-reliance, strengthen its technological capabilities, and enhance defense preparedness to secure its strategic role on the world stage. With the possibility of a more transactional U.S. approach to foreign policy, Europe may have to become more self-sufficient in AI and defense, reducing reliance on the U.S. and reinforcing its transatlantic commitments.
Key Questions: Shaping the Future of Great Power Competition
This discussion raises several pressing questions that will shape the future of global power competition:
Can democratic states, often slowed by bureaucratic processes, compete effectively with autocratic states that innovate and implement technology without these constraints?
How is the private defense and security sector reshaping global power dynamics, and what does this mean for national governments?
What role does transatlantic cooperation play in countering authoritarian influence, especially if the U.S. adopts a more transactional approach to foreign policy?
How do private sector actors navigate conflicting regulations on emerging technologies between democratic and authoritarian states?
Why This Matters
In a world where technology increasingly dictates global influence, it’s essential to foster dialogue across sectors, age groups, and ideologies. Addressing Europe’s specific strategic needs, these discussions aim to foster resilience and innovation in transatlantic defense, equipping participants with insights and strategies to secure a strong, united response to rising autocratic influence in AI and defense technology.
As the stakes grow higher, understanding the strengths, limitations, and strategic opportunities of both democratic and autocratic states becomes crucial. This conversation is an essential step in building alliances, policies, and innovations that can maintain a balanced, stable, and democratic global future.
